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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
9/4/2023League OneLeague One · Round 21Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
×Draw28%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.13

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.17
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.13
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
67%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
72%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
60%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
18%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
72%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
37%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
14%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
68%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
31%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
55%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%
level
28%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
33%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3-2 in League One on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Yuexiushan Stadium in Canton.