Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–1 Hebei Zhongji

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

12/16/2021

Super League · Championship Round - 2Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC65%

×Draw20%

Hebei Zhongji16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.98

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.19

Hebei Zhongji

0.98

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

2.04

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.04

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.03

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

84%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Hebei Zhongji

80%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

35%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

41%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

89%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

64%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

37%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

62%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

26%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

80%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

65%

level

20%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

16%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff