Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Daegu FC — AFC Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Guangzhou Evergrande FC22%
Daegu FC58%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Daegu FC creates 73% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches
Daegu FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Daegu FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24
Daegu FC attack 2.30 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Daegu FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Daegu FC on Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 10:00. The match is part of the AFC Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Daegu FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on May 22, 2019.
The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.