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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
8/15/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC55%
×Draw22%
Chongqing Lifan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.91
Chongqing Lifan
1.14

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Chongqing Lifan
78%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
45%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
32%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
85%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
57%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
30%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
68%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
32%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
71%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.91

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
55%
level
22%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
23%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–1 Chongqing Lifan

Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in Super League on August 15, 2019.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.