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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
1/1/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Round - 7Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC56%
×Draw22%
Changchun Yatai22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.97
Changchun Yatai
1.17

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
78%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Changchun Yatai
78%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
44%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
33%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
86%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
58%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
31%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
69%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
33%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
71%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.97

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
56%
level
22%
Changchun Yatai scores more
22%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–0 Changchun Yatai

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 in Super League on January 1, 2022.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Canton.