Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–1 Buriram United

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Buriram United

2/14/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC39%

×Draw25%

Buriram United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.34

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.42

Buriram United

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.28

creates per match

0.68

2.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.28

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.00

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

65%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Buriram United

75%

Draw or Buriram United

61%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

18%

Buriram United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

41%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

17%

Buriram United 1+ goals

74%

Buriram United 2+ goals

39%

Buriram United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

52%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

39%

level

25%

Buriram United scores more

35%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff