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Guangzhou E-Power vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Guangzhou E-Power
Guangzhou E-Power
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
7/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Huangpu Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guangzhou E-Power67%
×Draw21%
Quanzhou Yassin12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou E-Power
1.90
Quanzhou Yassin
0.64

Guangzhou E-Power creates 197% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

creates per match

Guangzhou E-Power
2.00
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Guangzhou E-Power
0.50
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Guangzhou E-Power+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou E-Power ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangzhou E-Power or draw
88%
Guangzhou E-Power or Quanzhou Yassin
79%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
33%

Winning margin

Guangzhou E-Power wins by 2+
41%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Guangzhou E-Power 1+ goals
85%
Guangzhou E-Power 2+ goals
56%
Guangzhou E-Power 3+ goals
29%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
47%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
14%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou E-Power (draw refunded)
85%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou E-Power at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou E-Power attack 2.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Guangzhou E-Power defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Guangzhou E-Power scores more
67%
level
21%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
12%

Guangzhou E-Power at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Guangzhou E-Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangzhou E-Power 8–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Guangzhou E-Power beat Quanzhou Yassin 8-1 in League Two on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Huangpu Sports Center in Guangzhou.