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Guangzhou E-Power vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Guangzhou E-Power
Guangzhou E-Power
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
6/8/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Huangpu Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guangzhou E-Power63%
×Draw23%
Guangxi Lanhang14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou E-Power
1.75
Guangxi Lanhang
0.69

Guangzhou E-Power creates 154% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guangzhou E-Power
2.00
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Guangzhou E-Power
0.50
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Guangzhou E-Power+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou E-Power ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guangzhou E-Power or draw
86%
Guangzhou E-Power or Guangxi Lanhang
77%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
37%

Winning margin

Guangzhou E-Power wins by 2+
36%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guangzhou E-Power 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou E-Power 2+ goals
52%
Guangzhou E-Power 3+ goals
25%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
50%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
15%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou E-Power (draw refunded)
81%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou E-Power at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou E-Power attack 2.00 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Guangzhou E-Power defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guangzhou E-Power scores more
63%
level
23%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
14%

Guangzhou E-Power at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guangzhou E-Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangzhou E-Power 4–1 Guangxi Lanhang

Guangzhou E-Power beat Guangxi Lanhang 4-1 in League Two on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Huangpu Sports Center in Guangzhou.