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Guangxi Lanhang vs Shanghai Port II — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Port II
Shanghai Port II
4/11/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Jiulinghu Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang24%
×Draw27%
Shanghai Port II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
0.94
Shanghai Port II
1.46

Shanghai Port II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 37 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Shanghai Port II
1.22

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Shanghai Port II
1.08

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Shanghai Port II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Shanghai Port II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
51%
Guangxi Lanhang or Shanghai Port II
73%
Draw or Shanghai Port II
76%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
8%
Shanghai Port II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
61%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
24%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
7%
Shanghai Port II 1+ goals
77%
Shanghai Port II 2+ goals
43%
Shanghai Port II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
33%
Shanghai Port II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Shanghai Port II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Shanghai Port II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Shanghai Port II attack 1.22 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
24%
level
27%
Shanghai Port II scores more
49%

Shanghai Port II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shanghai Port II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 0–1 Shanghai Port II

Shanghai Port II beat Guangxi Lanhang 1-0 in League Two on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Jiulinghu Football Training Base in Guigang.