Guangxi Lanhang 2–1 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Guangxi Lanhang

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hainan Star

6/24/2023

League Two · Round 8Liuzhou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang37%

×Draw26%

Hainan Star36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi LanhangExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Guangxi Lanhang

1.31

Hainan Star

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 48 away

0.80

creates per match

0.88

1.70

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang

0.80

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang

1.70

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw

64%

Guangxi Lanhang or Hainan Star

74%

Draw or Hainan Star

63%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+

17%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals

73%

Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals

38%

Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals

14%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

72%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

37%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)

51%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more

37%

level

26%

Hainan Star scores more

36%

Guangxi Lanhang at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guangxi Lanhang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff