Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guangxi Hengchen vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen
FT
5 – 1
HT: 5 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
4/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Guigang Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Guangxi Hengchen61%
×Draw23%
Quanzhou Yassin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Hengchen
1.79
Quanzhou Yassin
0.81

Guangxi Hengchen creates 121% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Guangxi Hengchen
1.79
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Guangxi Hengchen
0.86
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Guangxi Hengchen+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Hengchen ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guangxi Hengchen or draw
83%
Guangxi Hengchen or Quanzhou Yassin
77%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
39%

Winning margin

Guangxi Hengchen wins by 2+
35%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guangxi Hengchen 1+ goals
83%
Guangxi Hengchen 2+ goals
53%
Guangxi Hengchen 3+ goals
26%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
56%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
19%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Hengchen (draw refunded)
78%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Hengchen at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Hengchen attack 1.79 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Guangxi Hengchen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guangxi Hengchen scores more
61%
level
23%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
17%

Guangxi Hengchen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guangxi Hengchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Hengchen 5–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Guangxi Hengchen beat Quanzhou Yassin 5-1 in League Two on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Guigang Sports Center Stadium in Guigang.