Guangxi Hengchen 3–1 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Guangxi Hengchen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hainan Star

4/28/2024

League Two · Round 6Guigang Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Guangxi Hengchen59%

×Draw23%

Hainan Star18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi HengchenExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.87

Guangxi Hengchen

1.80

Hainan Star

0.87

Guangxi Hengchen creates 107% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 48 away

1.79

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Guangxi Hengchen

1.79

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Guangxi Hengchen

0.86

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Hengchen+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Hengchen ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guangxi Hengchen or draw

82%

Guangxi Hengchen or Hainan Star

77%

Draw or Hainan Star

41%

Winning margin

Guangxi Hengchen wins by 2+

34%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guangxi Hengchen 1+ goals

83%

Guangxi Hengchen 2+ goals

54%

Guangxi Hengchen 3+ goals

27%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

58%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

22%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Hengchen (draw refunded)

77%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Hengchen at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Hengchen attack 1.79 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Guangxi Hengchen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guangxi Hengchen scores more

59%

level

23%

Hainan Star scores more

18%

Guangxi Hengchen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guangxi Hengchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff