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Guangxi Baoyun vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
12/30/2021League OneLeague One · Relegation RoundHuitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun59%
×Draw24%
Xinjiang Tianshan17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.73
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.81

Guangxi Baoyun creates 114% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 72 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
83%
Guangxi Baoyun or Xinjiang Tianshan
76%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
41%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
33%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
82%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
52%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
56%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
19%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
77%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
59%
level
24%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
17%

Guangxi Baoyun at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 0–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Guangxi Baoyun and Xinjiang Tianshan drew 0-0 in League One on December 30, 2021.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.