Guangxi Baoyun 2–1 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Guangxi Baoyun

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shanghai Jiading

Yao Diran 36'

Hu Jiajin 19'

A. Amoo 54'

11/1/2025

League One · Round 29Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun43%

×Draw28%

Shanghai Jiading29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi BaoyunExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

Guangxi Baoyun

1.30

Shanghai Jiading

1.03

Guangxi Baoyun creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

1.47

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.00

Shanghai Jiading

0.60

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.47

Shanghai Jiading

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw

71%

Guangxi Baoyun or Shanghai Jiading

72%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

57%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

19%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

73%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

37%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

14%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

64%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

28%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

59%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.00 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.60 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

43%

level

28%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

29%

Guangxi Baoyun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

26'

32'

36'

46'

Yang Jingfan← Fu Shang

46'

Fan Chao← Chen Quanjiang

46'

Su Shihao← Bai Jiajun

46'

Du Changjie← Liu Boyang

46'

Zhou Junhao← Qi Xinlei

54'

A. Amoo

61'

Yang Minjie← Feng Yifan

75'

79'

80'

83'

86'

90'

Ding Quancheng← Hu Jiajin

90+2'

Y. Zou← Zhu Baojie

Guangxi

Shanghai

1

Yupeng

3

Ben

16

▼

Haoran

5

Tianyi

6

▼

Boyang

2

▼

Xinlei

33

▼

Baojie

23

▼

Jiajun

10

⚽

Amoo

9

Coffey

43

▼

Lei

13

Jinshuai

35

Yue

5

⚽

Diran

4

▼

Yifan

34

Rongjun

11

A

Hao

8

⚽

▼

Jiajin

19

▼

Quanjiang

32

Wenjie

29

▼

Shang

43

Cheukoua

Manager: Koji Maeda

46'▲Yang Jingfan←▼Fu Shang

46'▲Fan Chao←▼Chen Quanjiang

61'▲Yang Minjie←▼Feng Yifan

90'▲Ding Quancheng←▼Hu Jiajin

Guangxi Baoyun substitutes

1Yanhan28Shaohao33Quancheng20Zhengjie36Minjie39Chenghe2An17Jingfan16Zili25Shihao44Chao38Wei

Manager: Zoran Janković

26'▲Qu Yanheng←▼Wu Lei

46'▲Su Shihao←▼Bai Jiajun

46'▲Du Changjie←▼Liu Boyang

46'▲Zhou Junhao←▼Qi Xinlei

80'▲M. Shui←▼Wang Haoran

90+2'▲Y. Zou←▼Zhu Baojie

Shanghai Jiading substitutes

35Xiang28Jingyi38Shui26Shihao45Zou12Changjie37Haozhen36Junhao11Yanheng