Guangxi Baoyun vs Nantong Zhiyun — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 63+ matches
Guangxi Baoyun35%
Nantong Zhiyun37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 63 home / 77 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guangxi Baoyun ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches
Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14
Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Nantong Zhiyun at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Wuhan Zall
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Hangzhou Greentown
Qingdao Huanghai
Beijing Baxy
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Liaoning Hongyun FC
Meizhou Kejia
Yanbian Tigers FC
Shanghai Shenxin
Zhejiang Yiteng
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Dalian Transcendence
Xinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guangxi Baoyun host Nantong Zhiyun on Sunday, 3 July 2022 at 08:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Guangxi Baoyun 2 – 2 Nantong Zhiyun
Guangxi Baoyun and Nantong Zhiyun drew 2-2 in League One on July 3, 2022.
Goals: Yang Yu (45+1'), Yang Ming-yang (60'), M. Kovačević (82'), Liu Wei (90').
The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.