Guangxi Baoyun 2–0 Dantong Hantong: Result & Stats

Guangxi Baoyun

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dantong Hantong

8/12/2023

League One · Round 18Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun48%

×Draw29%

Dantong Hantong23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi BaoyunExpected goals in this matchDantong Hantong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.80

Guangxi Baoyun

1.29

Dantong Hantong

0.80

Guangxi Baoyun creates 61% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

0.60

1.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.32

Dantong Hantong

0.60

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.00

Dantong Hantong

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Dantong Hantong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw

77%

Guangxi Baoyun or Dantong Hantong

71%

Draw or Dantong Hantong

52%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

22%

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

72%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

37%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

14%

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

55%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

19%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

67%

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

48%

level

29%

Dantong Hantong scores more

23%

Guangxi Baoyun at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 2–0 Dantong Hantong

Guangxi Baoyun beat Dantong Hantong 2-0 in League One on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Pingguo Stadium in Pingguo.

Guangxi Baoyun vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 2–0 Dantong Hantong