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Guangxi Baoyun vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
8/18/2022League OneLeague One · Round 16Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun46%
×Draw26%
Beijing Baxy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.44
Beijing Baxy
1.04

Guangxi Baoyun creates 38% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 71 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
73%
Guangxi Baoyun or Beijing Baxy
74%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
54%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
23%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
76%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
42%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
18%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
65%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
28%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
63%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
46%
level
26%
Beijing Baxy scores more
27%

Guangxi Baoyun at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangxi Baoyun vs Beijing Baxy

Guangxi Baoyun beat Beijing Baxy 2-1 in League One on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.