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Guangdong Mingtu vs Shenzhen 2028 — League Two 2022

Guangdong Mingtu
Guangdong Mingtu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 2028
3/23/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guangdong Mingtu32%
×Draw28%
Shenzhen 202840%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangdong Mingtu
1.06
Shenzhen 2028
1.22

Shenzhen 2028 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Guangdong Mingtu
1.00
Shenzhen 2028
1.09

allows per match

Guangdong Mingtu
1.35
Shenzhen 2028
1.13

finishing

Guangdong Mingtu+0.00on par
Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangdong Mingtu ↓

Shenzhen 2028 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guangdong Mingtu or draw
60%
Guangdong Mingtu or Shenzhen 2028
72%
Draw or Shenzhen 2028
68%

Winning margin

Guangdong Mingtu wins by 2+
12%
Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guangdong Mingtu 1+ goals
65%
Guangdong Mingtu 2+ goals
29%
Guangdong Mingtu 3+ goals
9%
Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals
70%
Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals
34%
Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guangdong Mingtu (draw refunded)
44%
Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangdong Mingtu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Shenzhen 2028 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangdong Mingtu attack 1.00 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.09 + Guangdong Mingtu defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangdong Mingtu scores more
32%
level
28%
Shenzhen 2028 scores more
40%

Shenzhen 2028 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangdong Mingtu 0–1 Shenzhen 2028

Shenzhen 2028 beat Guangdong Mingtu 1-0 in League Two on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.