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Guangdong Mingtu vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Guangdong Mingtu
Guangdong Mingtu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
5/25/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guangdong Mingtu39%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Lanhang33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangdong Mingtu
1.25
Guangxi Lanhang
1.11

Guangdong Mingtu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guangdong Mingtu
1.00
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Guangdong Mingtu
1.35
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Guangdong Mingtu+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangdong Mingtu ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guangdong Mingtu or draw
67%
Guangdong Mingtu or Guangxi Lanhang
72%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
61%

Winning margin

Guangdong Mingtu wins by 2+
17%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guangdong Mingtu 1+ goals
71%
Guangdong Mingtu 2+ goals
36%
Guangdong Mingtu 3+ goals
13%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
67%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
30%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guangdong Mingtu (draw refunded)
55%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangdong Mingtu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangdong Mingtu attack 1.00 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Guangdong Mingtu defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guangdong Mingtu scores more
39%
level
28%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
33%

Guangdong Mingtu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guangdong Mingtu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangdong Mingtu vs Guangxi Lanhang

Guangdong Mingtu and Guangxi Lanhang drew 1-1 in League Two on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.