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Guanabara City U20 vs Jataiense U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jataiense U20
Jataiense U20
4/12/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8SESI Multiparque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guanabara City U2063%
×Draw20%
Jataiense U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guanabara City U20
2.08
Jataiense U20
0.95

Guanabara City U20 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Guanabara City U20
1.50
Jataiense U20
1.00

allows per match

Guanabara City U20
0.90
Jataiense U20
2.67

finishing

Guanabara City U20+0.00on par
Jataiense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guanabara City U20 ↓

Jataiense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guanabara City U20 or draw
84%
Guanabara City U20 or Jataiense U20
80%
Draw or Jataiense U20
37%

Winning margin

Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
39%
Jataiense U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
87%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
61%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
34%
Jataiense U20 1+ goals
61%
Jataiense U20 2+ goals
25%
Jataiense U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
79%
Jataiense U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guanabara City U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Jataiense U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.50 + Jataiense U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jataiense U20 attack 1.00 + Guanabara City U20 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guanabara City U20 scores more
63%
level
20%
Jataiense U20 scores more
16%

Guanabara City U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guanabara City U20 vs Jataiense U20

Guanabara City U20 beat Jataiense U20 5-0 in Goiano U20 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at SESI Multiparque in Goiânia, Goiás.