Guanabara City U20 4–1 Itaberai U20: Result & Stats

Guanabara City U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Itaberai U20

4/26/2024

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Ferreira Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guanabara City U2069%

×Draw19%

Itaberai U2012%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guanabara City U20Expected goals in this matchItaberai U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.79

Guanabara City U20

2.17

Itaberai U20

0.79

Guanabara City U20 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

0.90

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Guanabara City U20

1.50

Itaberai U20

0.67

allows per match

Guanabara City U20

0.90

Itaberai U20

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Itaberai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guanabara City U20 ↓

Itaberai U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Guanabara City U20 or draw

88%

Guanabara City U20 or Itaberai U20

81%

Draw or Itaberai U20

31%

Winning margin

Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+

45%

Itaberai U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guanabara City U20 1+ goals

89%

Guanabara City U20 2+ goals

64%

Guanabara City U20 3+ goals

36%

Itaberai U20 1+ goals

55%

Itaberai U20 2+ goals

19%

Itaberai U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)

85%

Itaberai U20 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guanabara City U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Itaberai U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.50 + Itaberai U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Itaberai U20 attack 0.67 + Guanabara City U20 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Guanabara City U20 scores more

69%

level

19%

Itaberai U20 scores more

12%

Guanabara City U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff