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Guanabara City U20 vs Gremio Anapolis U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio Anapolis U20
Gremio Anapolis U20
Unknown 50'
3/15/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4SESI Multiparque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Guanabara City U2048%
×Draw25%
Gremio Anapolis U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guanabara City U20
1.58
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.11

Guanabara City U20 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Guanabara City U20
1.50
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.33

allows per match

Guanabara City U20
0.90
Gremio Anapolis U20
1.67

finishing

Guanabara City U20+0.00on par
Gremio Anapolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guanabara City U20 ↓

Gremio Anapolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guanabara City U20 or draw
73%
Guanabara City U20 or Gremio Anapolis U20
75%
Draw or Gremio Anapolis U20
52%

Winning margin

Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
25%
Gremio Anapolis U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
79%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
47%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
21%
Gremio Anapolis U20 1+ goals
67%
Gremio Anapolis U20 2+ goals
30%
Gremio Anapolis U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Gremio Anapolis U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guanabara City U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Gremio Anapolis U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.50 + Gremio Anapolis U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gremio Anapolis U20 attack 1.33 + Guanabara City U20 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guanabara City U20 scores more
48%
level
25%
Gremio Anapolis U20 scores more
27%

Guanabara City U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guanabara City U20 vs Gremio Anapolis U20

Guanabara City U20 beat Gremio Anapolis U20 1-0 in Goiano U20 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: ? (50').

The match was played at SESI Multiparque in Goiânia, Goiás.