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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
R. Ferrufino 89'
B. Sobrero 72'
R. Vargas 35'
J. Sanguinetti 23'
T. Tobar 61' (pen)
12/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 25Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ58%
×Draw22%
Universitario de Vinto20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.92
Universitario de Vinto
1.02

Gualberto Villarroel SJ creates 88% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 77 away

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.15
Universitario de Vinto
0.81

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.23
Universitario de Vinto
1.68

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw
80%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Universitario de Vinto
78%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
42%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
34%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
85%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
57%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
30%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
64%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
27%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
75%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.15 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.92

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.81 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
58%
level
22%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
20%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gualberto Villarroel SJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. SanguinettiGualberto Villarroel SJGualberto Villarroel SJ · M
9.2

Match Events

23'
J. Sanguinetti↳ H. Sánchez
35'
R. Vargas↳ B. Sobrero
46'
G. Vaca← S. Torres
46'
J. Lencinas← R. Orihuela
46'
J. Cuellar← S. Gandarillas
58'
Guilder CuellarPenalty confirmed
59'
Lider Yanarico
60'
T. Tobar← G. Cuellar
60'
R. Castro← J. Mercado
61'
R. Ferrufino← R. Vargas
61'
T. TobarPenalty
70'
M. Núñez← A. Llano
72'
B. Sobrero↳ J. Sanguinetti
77'
J. Bejarano← B. Sobrero
77'
A. Aramayo← A. Mamani
84'
P. Loza← J. Sanguinetti
86'
Maximiliano Ezequiel Nunez
89'
R. Ferrufino

Possession

55%Gualberto

Shots

21Gualberto

Pass accuracy

51%Gualberto

Statistics

GualbertoUniversitario
Overview
55%Possession45%
21Total Shots16
8Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots16
14On Target5
6Off Target8
1Blocked3
14Inside Box5
7Outside Box11
Passing
55%Possession45%
450Total Passes374
400Accurate Passes313
89%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves10
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Universitario de Vinto

Gualberto Villarroel SJ beat Universitario de Vinto 4-1 in Primera División on December 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Sanguinetti (23'), R. Vargas (35'), T. Tobar (61' pen), B. Sobrero (72'), R. Ferrufino (89').

Gualberto Villarroel SJ controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.