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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Bolívar — League #1172 2026

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bolívar
Bolívaradvanced
2/16/2025League #1172League #1172 · Round of 16Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gualberto Villarroel SJ30%
×Draw19%
Bolívar51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.88
Bolívar
2.46

Bolívar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.00
Bolívar
2.25

allows per match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.67
Bolívar
1.75

finishing

Gualberto Villarroel SJ+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualberto Villarroel SJ ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw
49%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ or Bolívar
81%
Draw or Bolívar
70%

Winning margin

Gualberto Villarroel SJ wins by 2+
15%
Bolívar wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1+ goals
85%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2+ goals
56%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3+ goals
29%
Bolívar 1+ goals
91%
Bolívar 2+ goals
70%
Bolívar 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (draw refunded)
37%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualberto Villarroel SJ attack 2.00 + Bolívar defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bolívar attack 2.25 + Gualberto Villarroel SJ defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gualberto Villarroel SJ scores more
30%
level
19%
Bolívar scores more
51%

Bolívar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1172: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1–2 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-1 in League #1172 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.