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Gualaceo SC vs LDU Loja — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
3 – 0
LDU Loja
LDU Loja
11/16/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 36Estadio Gerardo León Pozo (Gualaceo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Gualaceo SC55%
×Draw27%
LDU Loja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.44
LDU Loja
0.70

Gualaceo SC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 40 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.17
LDU Loja
0.60

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.79
LDU Loja
1.70

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
LDU Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

LDU Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
82%
Gualaceo SC or LDU Loja
73%
Draw or LDU Loja
45%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
28%
LDU Loja wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
76%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
42%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
18%
LDU Loja 1+ goals
50%
LDU Loja 2+ goals
16%
LDU Loja 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
75%
LDU Loja (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

LDU Loja away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + LDU Loja defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

LDU Loja attack 0.60 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
55%
level
27%
LDU Loja scores more
18%

Gualaceo SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Gualaceo SC 3–0 LDU Loja

Gualaceo SC beat LDU Loja 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Gerardo León Pozo (Gualaceo).