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Gualaceo SC vs Guayaquil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guayaquil
Guayaquil
J. Falconi 90+2'
A. Grueso 7'
7/11/2021Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 21Estadio Gerardo León Pozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gualaceo SC49%
×Draw28%
Guayaquil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.38
Guayaquil
0.85

Gualaceo SC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 54 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.17
Guayaquil
0.91

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.79
Guayaquil
1.59

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Guayaquil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Guayaquil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
77%
Gualaceo SC or Guayaquil
72%
Draw or Guayaquil
51%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
24%
Guayaquil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
75%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
40%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
16%
Guayaquil 1+ goals
57%
Guayaquil 2+ goals
21%
Guayaquil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
68%
Guayaquil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

Guayaquil away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + Guayaquil defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guayaquil attack 0.91 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
49%
level
28%
Guayaquil scores more
23%

Gualaceo SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Grueso
32'
Sander Mazamba
90+2'
J. Falconi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Gualaceo SC 2–0 Guayaquil

Gualaceo SC beat Guayaquil 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 11, 2021.

Goals: A. Grueso (7'), J. Falconi (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Gerardo León Pozo in Gualaceo.