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Gualaceo SC vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
10/10/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 11Estadio Gerardo León Pozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gualaceo SC42%
×Draw31%
Fuerza Amarilla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.10
Fuerza Amarilla
0.83

Gualaceo SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.17
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.79
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
73%
Gualaceo SC or Fuerza Amarilla
69%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
58%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
17%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
67%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
30%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
10%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
56%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
20%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
60%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
42%
level
31%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
27%

Gualaceo SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gualaceo SC vs Fuerza Amarilla

Gualaceo SC and Fuerza Amarilla drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Gerardo León Pozo in Gualaceo.