Gualaceo SC 2–1 Atlético Vinotinto: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Vinotinto

D. Ovando 60'

T. Donsanti 56'

P. Vargas 88'

5/22/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 10Estadio Jorge Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gualaceo SC45%

×Draw30%

Atlético Vinotinto25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchAtlético Vinotinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.81

Gualaceo SC

1.21

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

Gualaceo SC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

1.23

creates per match

0.81

0.80

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.23

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.80

Atlético Vinotinto

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

75%

Gualaceo SC or Atlético Vinotinto

70%

Draw or Atlético Vinotinto

55%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

20%

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

70%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

34%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

12%

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

56%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

19%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

65%

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.23 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

45%

level

30%

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

25%

Gualaceo SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

T. Donsanti

60'

D. Ovando

88'

P. Vargas

Gualaceo

Atlético

12

33

26

21

4

20

5

10

11

9

18

12

6

23

4

21

5

80

10

70

11

⚽

Ovando

32

⚽

Donsanti

Manager: Cipriano

Gualaceo SC substitutes

14Alvarado7Caicedo15Salazar99Pita9Cordara24Delgado30Romero53Cabrera88Wila22Rivera

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

24Caicedo50Conforme8Zambrano40Porozo97Cangá2Piñeiros7Bolaño13Paz31Barragán59Macías

Match Recap: Gualaceo SC vs Atlético Vinotinto

Gualaceo SC beat Atlético Vinotinto 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 22, 2025.

Goals: T. Donsanti (56'), D. Ovando (60'), P. Vargas (88').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Andrade in Azogues.

Gualaceo SC vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gualaceo SC vs Atlético Vinotinto