Gualaceo SC 1–0 America de Quito: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Quito

7/28/2021

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio Gerardo León Pozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Gualaceo SC43%

×Draw29%

America de Quito28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.92

Gualaceo SC

1.23

America de Quito

0.92

Gualaceo SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 85 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

0.79

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.17

America de Quito

1.05

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.79

America de Quito

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

America de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

72%

Gualaceo SC or America de Quito

71%

Draw or America de Quito

57%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

19%

America de Quito wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

71%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

35%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

13%

America de Quito 1+ goals

60%

America de Quito 2+ goals

23%

America de Quito 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

61%

America de Quito (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

43%

level

29%

America de Quito scores more

28%

Gualaceo SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff