Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guairena FC vs Deportivo Liberacion — Division Intermedia 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
4 – 0
Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
5/27/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 12Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guairena FC54%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Liberacion20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.56
Deportivo Liberacion
0.85

Guairena FC creates 84% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Deportivo Liberacion
0.87

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.84
Deportivo Liberacion
1.53

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Deportivo Liberacion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
80%
Guairena FC or Deportivo Liberacion
74%
Draw or Deportivo Liberacion
46%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
28%
Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
79%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
46%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
73%
Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Deportivo Liberacion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Deportivo Liberacion attack 0.87 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guairena FC scores more
54%
level
26%
Deportivo Liberacion scores more
20%

Guairena FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guairena FC 4–0 Deportivo Liberacion

Guairena FC beat Deportivo Liberacion 4-0 in Division Intermedia on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica).