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Guairena FC vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
2 – 1
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
5/20/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guairena FC61%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Caaguazu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.77
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.78

Guairena FC creates 127% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.84
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
84%
Guairena FC or Deportivo Caaguazu
77%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
39%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
83%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
53%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
79%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Guairena FC scores more
61%
level
23%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
16%

Guairena FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guairena FC 2–1 Deportivo Caaguazu

Guairena FC beat Deportivo Caaguazu 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica).