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Guairena FC vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
6/22/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Guairena FC48%
×Draw27%
Club River Plate25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.43
Club River Plate
0.94

Guairena FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 47 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Club River Plate
1.04

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.84
Club River Plate
1.26

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
75%
Guairena FC or Club River Plate
73%
Draw or Club River Plate
52%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
24%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
76%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
42%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
17%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
61%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
24%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
66%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Club River Plate defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Club River Plate attack 1.04 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guairena FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Club River Plate scores more
25%

Guairena FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guairena FC 0–1 Club River Plate

Club River Plate beat Guairena FC 1-0 in Division Intermedia on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá in Villarrica.