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Guairena FC vs 12 de Octubre — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
9/26/2020Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 21Estadio Parque del Guairá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Guairena FC39%
×Draw29%
12 de Octubre32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.17
12 de Octubre
1.02

Guairena FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 31 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
0.98
12 de Octubre
0.94

allows per match

Guairena FC
1.10
12 de Octubre
1.35

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
68%
Guairena FC or 12 de Octubre
71%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
61%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
17%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
69%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
33%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
11%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
64%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
27%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
55%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + Guairena FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guairena FC scores more
39%
level
29%
12 de Octubre scores more
32%

Guairena FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guairena FC vs 12 de Octubre

Guairena FC and 12 de Octubre drew 3-3 in Division Profesional - Apertura on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá in Villarrica.