Guadalupe FC 0–2 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Guadalupe FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Ana

1/23/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guadalupe FC45%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalupe FCExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.25

Guadalupe FC

1.59

Santa Ana

1.25

Guadalupe FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 110 away

1.74

creates per match

1.41

1.10

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Guadalupe FC

1.74

Santa Ana

1.41

allows per match

Guadalupe FC

1.10

Santa Ana

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Santa Ana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw

70%

Guadalupe FC or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

55%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

23%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

80%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

47%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

21%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

71%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

36%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

60%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Santa Ana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Santa Ana attack 1.41 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more

45%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

30%

Guadalupe FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff