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Guadalupe FC vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
10/6/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Guadalupe FC43%
×Draw26%
Limón Black Star31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalupe FC
1.48
Limón Black Star
1.22

Guadalupe FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

creates per match

Guadalupe FC
1.74
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

Guadalupe FC
1.10
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw
69%
Guadalupe FC or Limón Black Star
74%
Draw or Limón Black Star
57%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
21%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
77%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
43%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
19%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
70%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
34%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
58%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Limón Black Star scores more
31%

Guadalupe FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalupe FC vs Limón Black Star

Limón Black Star beat Guadalupe FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.