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Guadalupe FC vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
2/11/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Guadalupe FC52%
×Draw24%
Aserri FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalupe FC
1.71
Aserri FC
1.08

Guadalupe FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 106 away

creates per match

Guadalupe FC
1.74
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Guadalupe FC
1.10
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalupe FC ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guadalupe FC or draw
76%
Guadalupe FC or Aserri FC
76%
Draw or Aserri FC
48%

Winning margin

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
28%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
82%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
51%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
24%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
66%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
29%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
68%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalupe FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.10 · 39 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalupe FC attack 1.74 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guadalupe FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Aserri FC scores more
24%

Guadalupe FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guadalupe FC 4 – 0 Aserri FC

Guadalupe FC beat Aserri FC 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.