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Aserri FC vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
11/3/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Estadio Municipal de Aserrí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aserri FC34%
×Draw26%
Guadalupe FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.29
Guadalupe FC
1.45

Guadalupe FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
59%
Aserri FC or Guadalupe FC
74%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
66%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
15%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
72%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
37%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
14%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
77%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
42%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
45%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aserri FC scores more
34%
level
26%
Guadalupe FC scores more
41%

Guadalupe FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 0–0 Guadalupe FC

Aserri FC and Guadalupe FC drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Aserrí in Jorco.