Guadalajara 2–3 Zamora: Result & Stats

Guadalajara

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zamora

P. Munoz 90'

S. M. Caropitche 51'

J. Farrell 90'

L. M. Luengo Herrera 82'

D. Merchan 47'

12/21/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Guadalajara39%

×Draw27%

Zamora34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuadalajaraExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Guadalajara

1.30

Zamora

1.18

Guadalajara creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 69 away

1.32

creates per match

1.04

1.32

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Guadalajara

1.32

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Guadalajara

1.32

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw

66%

Guadalajara or Zamora

73%

Draw or Zamora

61%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+

18%

Zamora wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals

73%

Guadalajara 2+ goals

37%

Guadalajara 3+ goals

14%

Zamora 1+ goals

69%

Zamora 2+ goals

33%

Zamora 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)

54%

Zamora (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.32 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Zamora attack 1.04 + Guadalajara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guadalajara scores more

39%

level

27%

Zamora scores more

34%

Guadalajara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

31'

47'

51'

60'

60'

J. Carbonell← I. Athuman

64'

L. M. Luengo Herrera

64'

A. Moreno← Samuel

64'

U. Alvarez← Neskes

73'

M. Lozano

73'

P. Rojo← T. Calvo

82'

L. M. Luengo Herrera

84'

A. Canizo← J. Martinez

90'

E. Ruiz

90+2'

M. Garcia← J. Farrell

90'

J. Farrell

90'

P. Munoz

Guadalajara

Zamora

1

Sobron

4

▼

Athuman

2

⚽

20

22

7

16

10

3

⚽

Merchan

9

▼

Eslava

18

⚽

▼

13

5

4

15

18

▼

Martinez

19

⚽

Munoz

22

▼

Samuel

14

Tavares

7

▼

Neskes

8

▼

Calvo

24

⚽

Caropitch

Manager: Gabriel Milito

64'▲A. Moreno←▼Samuel

64'▲U. Alvarez←▼Neskes

73'▲P. Rojo←▼T. Calvo

84'▲A. Canizo←▼J. Martinez

Guadalajara substitutes

1Zarco3Moreno6Rojo9Canizo11Alvarez16Cera21Ramirez23Casado29Verdu

Manager: Juan Sabas

60'▲E. Ruiz←▼J. Eslava

60'▲J. Carbonell←▼I. Athuman

90+2'▲M. Garcia←▼J. Farrell

Zamora substitutes

13Pereda5Ruiz6Garcia8Lucero14Claveria17Carbonell19Monerris23Lopez21Lopez

Match Recap: Guadalajara vs Zamora

Zamora beat Guadalajara 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 21, 2025.

Goals: D. Merchan (47'), S. M. Caropitche (51'), L. M. Luengo Herrera (82'), J. Farrell (90'), P. Munoz (90').

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Escartín in Guadalajara.

Guadalajara vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guadalajara vs Zamora