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Guadalajara vs Ourense CF — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Guadalajara
Guadalajara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
2/22/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Guadalajara42%
×Draw28%
Ourense CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara
1.29
Ourense CF
1.03

Guadalajara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Guadalajara
1.32
Ourense CF
0.74

allows per match

Guadalajara
1.32
Ourense CF
1.26

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw
70%
Guadalajara or Ourense CF
72%
Draw or Ourense CF
58%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+
19%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals
72%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
37%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
14%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
64%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
28%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)
59%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.32 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Guadalajara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guadalajara scores more
42%
level
28%
Ourense CF scores more
30%

Guadalajara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Guadalajara 1–0 Ourense CF

Guadalajara beat Ourense CF 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Escartín in Guadalajara.