Guadalajara 1–1 Cacereño: Result & Stats

Guadalajara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cacereño

J. Ablanque 40'

J. Hyjek 6'

1/10/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Guadalajara38%

×Draw26%

Cacereño36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuadalajaraExpected goals in this matchCacereño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Guadalajara

1.32

Cacereño

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.32

creates per match

1.21

1.32

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Guadalajara

1.32

Cacereño

1.21

allows per match

Guadalajara

1.32

Cacereño

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par

Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

Cacereño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw

64%

Guadalajara or Cacereño

74%

Draw or Cacereño

62%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+

17%

Cacereño wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals

73%

Guadalajara 2+ goals

38%

Guadalajara 3+ goals

15%

Cacereño 1+ goals

72%

Cacereño 2+ goals

36%

Cacereño 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)

52%

Cacereño (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.32 + Cacereño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cacereño attack 1.21 + Guadalajara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guadalajara scores more

38%

level

26%

Cacereño scores more

36%

Guadalajara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Hyjek

28'

A. Crespo← O. El Goumiri

40'

46'

52'

59'

60'

63'

70'

B. Diaz← Neskes

70'

G. Perero← S. M. Caropitche

75'

Deco← J. Hyjek

75'

C. Gonzalez← D. Gomez

90'

90'

90'

90+2'

Guadalajara

Cacereño

1

22

3

2

23

▼

Goumiri

24

Valdera

10

⚽

▼

6

17

19

9

▼

Gomez

13

Vicente

5

Gallardo

4

⚽

Ablanque

23

Casado

18

Martinez

11

▼

Alvarez

8

Calvo

14

Tavares

7

▼

Neskes

24

▼

Caropitch

19

▼

Munoz

Manager: Pere Marti

46'▲A. Canizo←▼P. Munoz

60'▲J. Gomez←▼U. Alvarez

70'▲B. Diaz←▼Neskes

70'▲G. Perero←▼S. M. Caropitche

Guadalajara substitutes

1Zarco15Rodriguez16Cera27Mayo20Diaz6Rojo9Canizo17Gomez21Perero

Manager: Julio Cobos

28'▲A. Crespo←▼O. El Goumiri

75'▲Deco←▼J. Hyjek

75'▲C. Gonzalez←▼D. Gomez

Cacereño substitutes

13Marti4Crespo8Deco18Sanchis20Gonzalez21Morales27Santamaria

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Guadalajara 1–1 Cacereño

Guadalajara and Cacereño drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 10, 2026.

Goals: J. Hyjek (6'), J. Ablanque (40').

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Escartín in Guadalajara.

Guadalajara vs Cacereño — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Guadalajara 1–1 Cacereño