Guadalajara II 0–1 Tarancón: Result & Stats

Guadalajara II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tarancón

12/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Campo de fútbol Fuente de la Niña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Guadalajara II39%

×Draw29%

Tarancón33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara IIExpected goals in this matchTarancón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.05

Guadalajara II

1.17

Tarancón

1.05

Guadalajara II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.18

creates per match

1.28

0.82

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Guadalajara II

1.18

Tarancón

1.28

allows per match

Guadalajara II

0.82

Tarancón

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara II+0.00on par

Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara II ↓

Tarancón →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guadalajara II or draw

67%

Guadalajara II or Tarancón

71%

Draw or Tarancón

61%

Winning margin

Guadalajara II wins by 2+

16%

Tarancón wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guadalajara II 1+ goals

69%

Guadalajara II 2+ goals

33%

Guadalajara II 3+ goals

11%

Tarancón 1+ goals

65%

Tarancón 2+ goals

28%

Tarancón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guadalajara II (draw refunded)

54%

Tarancón (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara II attack 1.18 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Guadalajara II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guadalajara II scores more

39%

level

29%

Tarancón scores more

33%

Guadalajara II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guadalajara II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff