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Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
Preview
00:07
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
9/14/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Akron
Big match
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
model favours
36%26%37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas36%
×Draw26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.29
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.34
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.34
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.24

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.26scores more
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.31scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
63%
Guadalajara Chivas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
74%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
64%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
16%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
72%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
37%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
14%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
38%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
49%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.34 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
36%
level
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Guadalajara Chivas 2 vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1
  • Guadalajara Chivas win just 38% against the top half (vs 74% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Guadalajara Chivas
Balanced
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
50%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy82%
13.0ShotsBiggest gap12.4
1.43xG1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Guadalajara ChivasU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

6
Guadalajara Chivas
2
Draws
2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
2–22–11–00–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chivas
LDLD
Pumas
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guadalajara Chivas face U.N.A.M. - Pumas (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Guadalajara Chivas hosting U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Match starts September 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guadalajara Chivas host U.N.A.M. - Pumas at Estadio Akron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.