Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

G. Alcalá 40' (OG)

A. Vega 38'

J. Orozco 15'

Diogo 3'

8/28/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas38%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Guadalajara Chivas

1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.21

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

65%

Guadalajara Chivas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

62%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

72%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

37%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

14%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

53%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

38%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

35%

Guadalajara Chivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Vega

Guadalajara Chivas · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

Diogo↳ J. Dinenno

15'

J. Orozco↳ A. Vega

18'

Diogo

38'

A. Vega

40'

G. AlcaláOwn goal

46'

Higor Meritão← L. López

46'

C. Huerta← J. Rodríguez

50'

Jesús Sánchez

53'

C. Cisneros← J. Sánchez

60'

Gilberto Sepúlveda

65'

P. Pérez← I. Brizuela

65'

S. Ormeño← Á. Zaldívar

71'

M. García← P. Bennevendo

77'

A. Torres← S. Flores

77'

R. González← F. Beltrán

77'

J. Ruvalcaba← G. Del Prete

82'

Dani Alves

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraU.N.A.M.

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots13

5Corners0

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

7On Target4

4Off Target6

1Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

434Total Passes425

343Accurate Passes328

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Guadalajara Chivas beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 in Liga MX on August 28, 2022.

Goals: Diogo (3'), J. Orozco (15'), A. Vega (38'), G. Alcalá (40' o.g.).

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.

Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas