Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

10/7/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas38%

×Draw27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Guadalajara Chivas

1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.21

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

65%

Guadalajara Chivas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

73%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

62%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

72%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

37%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

14%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

53%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

38%

level

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

35%

Guadalajara Chivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff