Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Santos Laguna

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santos Laguna

Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte 75'

J. Ocejo 31'

4/5/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.41

Guadalajara Chivas

1.70

Santos Laguna

1.41

Guadalajara Chivas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.45

creates per match

1.61

1.21

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.45

Santos Laguna

1.61

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.21

Santos Laguna

1.95

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more

Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

68%

Guadalajara Chivas or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

23%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

82%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

51%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

24%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

76%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

41%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

58%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

44%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Briseño

Guadalajara Chivas · D

7.9

Match Events

23'

G.

25'

M. Mayorga

31'

J. Ocejo

46'

C. Calderón← M. Mayorga

51'

J. Molina

58'

E. Orrantía← R. Prieto

60'

A. Ibarguen

60'

Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte← J. Molina

63'

E. Aguirre← A. Ibargüen

71'

J. Macías← J. Sánchez

74'

H. Rodríguez← D. Andrade

74'

I. Jeraldino← J. Ocejo

75'

Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte

83'

C. Huerta← Á. Zaldívar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraSantos

Overview

60%Possession40%

23Total Shots14

10Corners4

13Fouls18

Shots

23Total Shots14

8On Target4

10Off Target7

5Blocked3

15Inside Box5

8Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

358Total Passes239

264Accurate Passes165

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2