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Guadalajara Chivas vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
CANC
00:00
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
4/26/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas44%
×Draw24%
Santos Laguna32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.70
Santos Laguna
1.41

Guadalajara Chivas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.45
Santos Laguna
1.61

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.21
Santos Laguna
1.95

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.41scores more
Santos Laguna-0.32scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
68%
Guadalajara Chivas or Santos Laguna
76%
Draw or Santos Laguna
56%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
23%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
82%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
51%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
24%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
76%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
41%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
58%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.45 + Santos Laguna defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70

Santos Laguna attack 1.61 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
44%
level
24%
Santos Laguna scores more
32%

Guadalajara Chivas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guadalajara Chivas face Santos Laguna (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Guadalajara Chivas hosting Santos Laguna. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guadalajara Chivas host Santos Laguna at Estadio AKRON.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.