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Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
Preview
03:07
Necaxa
Necaxa
10/21/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Akron
Big match
47%
Guadalajara Chivas
model favours
47%25%28%

Guadalajara Chivas have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas47%
×Draw25%
Necaxa28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.56
Necaxa
1.16

Guadalajara Chivas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 139 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.41
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.05
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
72%
Guadalajara Chivas or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
53%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
24%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
79%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
46%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
21%
Necaxa 1+ goals
69%
Necaxa 2+ goals
32%
Necaxa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
62%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 148 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
47%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
28%

Guadalajara Chivas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Guadalajara Chivas sit 2, Necaxa 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Guadalajara Chivas
Balanced
Necaxa
Direct / counter-attacking
52%Possession44%
82%Pass accuracy76%
13.6Shots13.8
1.45xGBiggest gap1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Guadalajara ChivasNecaxa

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Guadalajara Chivas
1
Draws
2
Necaxa
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 40%
0–03–12–33–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chivas
LDLD
Necaxa
WDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa

October 21, 2026: Guadalajara Chivas take on Necaxa in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa at Estadio Akron.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.