Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Necaxa: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Necaxa

Á. Zaldívar 90+13' (pen)

I. Brizuela 43'

L. García 53'

8/28/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas47%

×Draw25%

Necaxa28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.16

Guadalajara Chivas

1.56

Necaxa

1.16

Guadalajara Chivas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 139 away

1.41

creates per match

1.27

1.05

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

72%

Guadalajara Chivas or Necaxa

75%

Draw or Necaxa

53%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

24%

Necaxa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

79%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

46%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

21%

Necaxa 1+ goals

69%

Necaxa 2+ goals

32%

Necaxa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

62%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 148 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

47%

level

25%

Necaxa scores more

28%

Guadalajara Chivas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Briseño

Guadalajara Chivas · D

7.5

Match Events

23'

Alexis Vega

43'

I. Brizuela↳ Jesús Ricardo Angulo

46'

A. Medina← A. Sepúlveda

48'

Jesús Molina

53'

L. García↳ R. Aguirre

60'

U. Antuna← J. Molina

60'

C. Cisneros← A. Vega

66'

M. Salas← J. Escoboza

71'

F. Beltrán← I. Brizuela

78'

F. Meza← L. García

78'

M. Quiroga← R. Aguirre

89'

Alejandro Mayorga

90+6'

Luis OlivasPenalty confirmed

90+10'

Fernando Meza

90+8'

Agustín Oliveros

90+6'

Luis OlivasPenalty confirmed

90'

J. Godínez← Jesús Ricardo Angulo

90'

G. Sepúlveda← J. Sánchez

90+13'

Á. ZaldívarPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuadalajaraNecaxa

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots10

6Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked2

7Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

527Total Passes286

442Accurate Passes182

84%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1