Guadalajara Chivas vs Forge — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Guadalajara Chivas78%
Forge7%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Guadalajara Chivas creates 289% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guadalajara Chivas ↓
Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches
Forge away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guadalajara Chivas attack 2.14 + Forge defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.57
Forge attack 0.75 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 78%?"
Guadalajara Chivas at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 78% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Los Angeles FC
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Nashville SC
Cruz Azul
FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
Club America
Los Angeles Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
Vancouver Whitecaps
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Inter Miami
Sporting San Miguelito
LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS CartaginesForge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guadalajara Chivas host Forge on Wednesday, 14 February 2024 at 03:00. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs Forge
Guadalajara Chivas beat Forge 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 14, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.