Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 Club Queretaro

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Queretaro

1/17/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas52%

×Draw25%

Club Queretaro23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.98

Guadalajara Chivas

1.59

Club Queretaro

0.98

Guadalajara Chivas creates 62% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 137 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.05

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

77%

Guadalajara Chivas or Club Queretaro

75%

Draw or Club Queretaro

48%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

27%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

80%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

47%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

21%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

62%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

26%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

69%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 148 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

52%

level

25%

Club Queretaro scores more

23%

Guadalajara Chivas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff